On October 21, The Associated Press news agency released a report titled "AP visual analysis: Rocket from Gaza appeared to go astray, likely caused deadly hospital explosion." The investigation involved the examination of over ten video clips capturing events before, during, and after the hospital explosion, along with satellite imagery.
According to the AP investigation's findings, it was determined that the rocket, which disintegrated in mid-air after launch, as displayed in Al Jazeera's live broadcast, originated from within Palestinian territory, particularly Gaza. The hospital explosion is believed to have been caused when a segment of this rocket descended to the ground.
The agency pointed out that the lack of forensic evidence and the difficulty of gathering that material on the ground in the middle of a war means there is no definitive proof the break-up of the rocket and the explosion at the hospital are linked. However, AP’s assessment is supported by a range of experts with specialties in open-source intelligence, geolocation and rocketry.
Following this, the agency quoted Henry Schlottman, a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst and open-source intelligence expert, as saying, "In the absence of additional evidence, the most likely scenario would be that it was a rocket launched from Gaza that failed mid-flight and that it mistakenly hit the hospital," despite their earlier statement of evidence absence. This specific quote selection falls under the practice known as "confirmation bias."
When testing a hypothesis in journalism, there are generally four categories of evidence to take into account: evidence supporting the hypothesis, evidence opposing the hypothesis, evidence supporting alternative hypotheses, and evidence opposing alternative hypotheses. Confirmation bias arises when a journalist actively looks for evidence that aligns with their primary hypothesis while dismissing or ignoring evidence that contradicts the primary hypothesis and supports alternative explanations.
Confirmation bias can also influence the data that is collected and highlighted, including which sources are interviewed and considered credible, how evidence and quotes are interpreted and analyzed, which aspects of the story are prominently featured, and which are downplayed or omitted.
AP's Unbalance in Reporting Both Parties' Narratives
In its investigation, AP relied on three circulated videos documenting the incident of the bombing of al-Ahli Arab Hospital. These videos include footage from Al Jazeera Live, a recording from a surveillance camera in the Netiv HaAsara settlement to the north of the Gaza Strip, and a clip aired by Israeli Channel 12 from the Netivot settlement to the east of the Gaza Strip.
When these three videos are seen together, they show that multiple rockets were launched from inside Gaza before one appears to have come apart in midair about three seconds before the explosion at the al-Ahli Arab Hospital on Tuesday, October 17, at 6:59 p.m.
The agency then pointed out that Hamas military wing al-Qassam Brigades said in a social media post at 7 p.m. that “al-Qassam Brigades strikes occupied Ashdod with a barrage of rockets.” Minutes later, it posted: “al-Qassam Brigades strikes Tel Aviv in response to Zionist massacres against civilians.”
Minutes later, the Islamic Jihad Movement also posted on Telegram that it had launched a rocket strike on Tel Aviv in response “to massacre against civilians.” Over the next hour, there were five more posts from the resistance groups announcing rocket attacks against Israel.
The agency did not justify its inclusion of these two messages or specify their timing without providing a link between them and the hospital bombing incident beyond the partial coincidence of timing. This was evident in the video aired by Channel 12, where another volley of rockets was seen emerging from a different location heading north, in addition to the rocket salvo passing over the hospital.
The outlet quoted the Israeli military's repeated confirmation that it did not shell the hospital, and it placed blame on an "errant rocket" launched by the Islamic Jihad Movement from within Gaza. It also cited the Israeli assessment, supported by U.S. intelligence and President Joe Biden, which also points out "the lack of both a large crater and extensive structural damage that would be consistent with a bomb dropped by Israeli aircraft."
When the agency reported Hamas's responses to Israel's accusations, it used language and implications that suggest skepticism, unlike its use of the Israeli narrative. The agency said that "Hamas calls Israel’s narrative “fabricated” and accuses it of punishing the hospital for ignoring a warning to evacuate two days earlier, though it has not released any evidence to support its claims."
In the final sentence, the agency explicitly obfuscated the facts, as the hospital's administration itself repeatedly confirmed receiving warnings from the Israeli army, and Israeli military and media spokespeople published those warnings themselves.
The Sequence of Events Ahead of al-Ahli Arab Hospital’s Bombing
The Associated Press Agency stated that six experts reviewed its visual analysis, and they all unanimously agreed that the most likely scenario is that a rocket coming from inside Gaza veered off course and came apart seconds before the explosion.
The agency quoted Andrea Richardson, an expert in analyzing open-source intelligence who is a consultant with the Human Rights Center at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Law, stating that specific landmarks visible in the videos show where the rockets were launched. She confirmed to the agency that "the timing of the rocket launches, the explosion and the first reports that the hospital had been hit also seemed to confirm the sequence of events."
The agency, along with the expert it cited, did not provide any evidence or explanation for the connection between the two incidents—the rocket launch and the hospital bombing—other than their temporal proximity. This is insufficient evidence in this case, as the rockets were already heading towards Israel before the incident and continued for at least an hour after, as did Israeli airstrikes on Gaza.
Instead, the outlet discussed the low quality of locally manufactured and small-sized rockets used by Palestinian resistance factions. It quoted Justin Crump, a former British Army officer and intelligence consultant, who stated that the failure rate of such locally-made rockets is high.
Crump told the AP: "You can see obviously it fails in flight, it spins out and disintegrates, and the impacts on the ground follow that. The most likely explanation is that this was a tragic accident." Once again, no objective evidence was presented to establish a causal link between the two events other than their close timing.
Large Crater Absence at Hospital Is Not Sufficient Evidence
According to the agency, a similar scenario occurred last year when rockets launched by the Islamic Jihad Movement malfunctioned, resulting in the deaths of at least twelve Gaza residents. However, it only compared the two scenarios and overlooked the extent of the damage. It did not mention that the bombing of the al-Ahli Arab Hospital left about 500 dead and over 300 injured.
On the other hand, the agency did not mention previous incidents of Israeli bombing on hospitals in Gaza, whether those that occurred before the al-Ahli Arab Hospital bombing and were covered by international media and organizations, or those that followed in the past few days after the bombing of al-Ahli Arab Hospital.
The Associated Press mentioned a small crater photographed in the hospital’s parking lot appeared to be about a meter across, suggesting a device with a much smaller explosive payload than a bomb. While Israel’s extensive arsenal includes smaller missiles that can be fired from helicopters and drones, there has been no public evidence of such missile strikes in the area around the al-Ahli Arab Hospital on Tuesday night unlike what multiple media outlets and journalists from Gaza have reported, stating that al-Zaytoun area, where Al-Ahli Hospital is located, had been subjected to intense bombing since the morning of Tuesday, October 17.
The agency quoted statements from David Shank, a retired U.S. Army colonel and expert on military rockets and missiles, in which he said that "the large fireball captured on video at the hospital could potentially be explained by the fact the malfunctioning militant rocket impacted prematurely and was still full of propellant. That highly volatile fuel then ignited when it hit the ground, setting off a large explosion but leaving a relatively small crater."
However, this is also not sufficient evidence to prove the involvement of the Islamic Jihad or to absolve Israel of the accusation. JDAM munitions including the suspected MK.83 GBU-32 that caused the hospital explosion have an airburst mode, which does not create a crater but kills through shrapnel, shockwaves, and the fireball generated by the explosion.
This is consistent with what the head of the orthopedic surgery department at the al-Ahli Arab Hospital described to Al Jazeera. He said, "The wounds suffered by the victims are incision wounds, indicating that a special type of bomb was used," with the intent to kill as many individuals as possible. He further explained, "I witnessed the wounds, and it was as if knives had exploded in the crowds, cutting their bodies and limbs."
He stated that the devastating impact of this bombing is still evident to this day. He added, "On Wednesday morning, October 18, we found the body of a child on one of the hospital's rooftops, and in the evening, we found the body of another child inside the church within the hospital; we even found children's remains scattered on the building structures."
Earlier, on Thursday, October 19, Misbar released an analysis regarding the fragile narrative put forth by Israel and the evidence indicating its involvement in the targeting of the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza. Furthermore, Avichay Adraee, the spokesperson for the Israeli army, rejected the idea of permitting an international investigation into the incident in an interview with Al Arabiya. He believed that "the truth is as clear as daylight" and described Israel's actions as a "war against falsehood."
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