On May 6, 2024, Israeli forces officially launched a military operation in the city of Rafah, situated in the southern Gaza Strip. Satellite imagery indicates that this operation originated from the Karem Abu Salem border crossing, with the strategic objective of taking control of the Rafah crossing, the sole exit point for the Gaza Strip.
At that time, John Kirby, spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, stated that the Israeli operation in Rafah was limited and did not represent an all-out assault. Official U.S. statements continued to describe the Israeli military operation in Rafah as “limited,” seemingly based on Israeli assurances that this operation would not resemble previous assaults on other cities in the Strip and would result in fewer civilian casualties. This sentiment was echoed by U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller on July 8, 2024, approximately two months after the onset of the Rafah invasion, when he noted, “The damage in Rafah does not appear to be as great, and we’ll have a—there’ll be assessments of this over time. It does not appear to be as great as those in Khan Younis and those in Gaza City.” He added, “And notably, the civilian harm has been reduced in operations.”
As we pass the four-month mark of the Israeli military operation in Rafah, one must question whether it can genuinely be described as “limited.” Given the scale of destruction in other cities across the Gaza Strip, this characterization seems increasingly inadequate.
Slow Tactics for Unrestricted Operations
Just a few weeks after the first—and so far only—ceasefire in the Israeli war on Gaza on November 24, 2023, Israel began slow-moving operations in Rafah, starting from the eastern border.
The initiation of these military operations coincided with reports of renewed negotiations, as highlighted by various media outlets. The BBC revealed that these discussions resulted in the postponement of a United Nations vote on a ceasefire resolution for Gaza. Meanwhile, the Israeli president stated that Israel was “ready for another ceasefire in the fighting to facilitate the release of more hostages.”
Nevertheless, Israeli operations in Rafah were slow but continuous. Initially, they involved the razing of land west of the Karem Abu Salem border crossing in an area adjacent to the beginning of the Philadelphia Corridor, followed by the construction of earthen barriers around the crossing itself. These preparations, as would later be clarified, were aimed at transforming it into a military base from which Israeli forces could launch operations toward Rafah.
Since the beginning of the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip in October 2023, the Karem Abu Salem border crossing has been utilized as a checkpoint for inspecting aid entering Gaza from the Rafah crossing. Aid would enter through Rafah, pass through Karem Abu Salem for Israeli inspection, and then return to Rafah for distribution to Gaza residents.
Our analysis of satellite imagery from Sentinel Hub and Planet Labs PBC indicates that these dredging operations began between December 6 and 11, 2023, covering an area of half a square kilometer and extending about one kilometer into Rafah.
Simultaneously, work began on constructing an earthen barrier around the Karem Abu Salem border crossing. According to satellite imagery, the construction of the earthen barriers around Karem Abu Salem did not commence until after December 16, with the Israeli president's statement regarding readiness for a new ceasefire in Gaza being made on December 19. This suggests that Israel's entry into negotiations at that time did not influence its operational plans on the ground.
The earthen barriers erected by Israel around the Karem Abu Salem border crossing, along with the land that was cleared and paved, suggest a calculated effort to transform this goods crossing—formerly utilized for inspecting humanitarian aid—into a staging ground for military forces involved in the invasion of Rafah. This clearly indicates that Israel intended to invade Rafah from the very beginning, planning for this operation as early as five months before the actual incursion. Notably, these preparations occurred despite explicit warnings from the United States about the potential ramifications of a military operation in Rafah during that timeframe.
How Did Misbar Investigate This?
Planet satellite images from May 5, 2024, reveal a significant buildup of Israeli military forces near the Karem Abu Salem border crossing. Journalist and open-source researcher Jack Godin shared an analysis on the X platform, showcasing the proximity of Israeli military vehicles to the crossing. Measurements taken using Google Earth indicate that these vehicles were positioned less than 500 meters away, highlighting the intensifying military presence in the area just before the operation commenced.
The Karem Abu Salem border crossing lies along the route taken by vehicles heading toward the Philadelphia Corridor. Our analysis of satellite imagery indicates that the movement of Israeli vehicles toward the Rafah crossing began from deep within the Karem Abu Salem border crossing, utilizing the Philadelphia Corridor for their advance.
Was the Destruction in Rafah “Limited”?
At first glance, the findings from the "Gaza Damage Proxy Map" tool, developed by Ollie Ballinger, a researcher and lecturer at the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA) at London's Global University (UCL), reveal the widespread destruction in the city of Rafah.
The tool measures cumulative damage rather than real-time effects. Considering that Rafah was the last city in the Gaza Strip to be invaded, it can be inferred that the destruction it endured was more severe compared to other cities.
The tool assesses building damage by analyzing changes in the intensity of radar waves reflected back to the Sentinel-1 satellite. Unlike visible light imagery, radar waves can penetrate cloud cover, vegetation, and darkness to detect alterations that might otherwise go unnoticed. When buildings are damaged or collapse, the amplitude and phase of the radar wave reflections change, signaling to the satellite that something on the ground has shifted. Using a peer-reviewed algorithm with over 80% accuracy in identifying damaged and undamaged structures—and exceeding 95% accuracy for the most severely damaged buildings—the tool provides a highly reliable assessment. Red areas on the map indicate a destruction rate of 95.4%, while dark purple highlights regions with a staggering 98.6% destruction rate.
For instance, in the area illustrated in the two images below, which spans from Tal al-Sultan in the west to al-Bayouk in the east, the estimated population exposed to damage doubled within one month—from 30,000 on May 7, 2024, to over 61,000 by June 6, 2024. Although this figure does not reflect human losses—especially considering that the vast majority have been displaced—it serves as an indicator of the extent of damage sustained by buildings in that area after one month of military operations in Rafah. This sharp increase highlights the escalating toll on infrastructure over time.
However, an examination of the sequence of satellite imagery taken from an altitude of 500 meters clearly reveals how significantly the urban fabric of Rafah has deteriorated over the months since the start of the Israeli invasion on May 7, particularly in areas closest to the border with Egypt and in western regions such as Tal al-Sultan.
High-resolution satellite imagery offers a closer look at the devastation in the Tal al-Sultan area following the military operation in Rafah. A comparison of Planet satellite images from December 31, 2023, July 17, 2024, and September 10, 2024, reveals the significant damage inflicted over time. Most buildings in the area were either severely damaged or completely destroyed, highlighting the widespread destruction that intensified as the operation progressed.
Israeli forces have completely razed residential blocks in Rafah. An analysis of Planet satellite imagery by Misbar shows that destruction has reached areas extending up to 2 kilometers from the Egyptian border. In a province where the maximum depth from the border is just 4.5 kilometers, with most residential blocks concentrated in the southern region, this level of destruction underscores the extensive impact of the military operations on the area’s infrastructure and civilian life.
A comparison of two Planet Labs images reveals the extensive destruction across Rafah, starting at the Egyptian border and stretching to Taha Hussein Street, passing through the city center.
Using Google Earth’s measurement tool, it is clear that the damage reached depths of over 1.5 kilometers, covering an area of approximately 2 square kilometers. This area, home to around 6,000 buildings, saw nearly 70% of its structures experience varying levels of damage, according to data analyzed by the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team. The scale of destruction underscores the immense toll the military operation has taken on the city.
According to recent estimates from the United Nations Satellite Centre (UNOSAT), released in July 2024, from May 3, 2024, to July 6, 2024, the Rafah province experienced the highest rate of building destruction in the Gaza Strip, with over 15,000 buildings destroyed to varying extents. Prior to May 3, the number of destroyed buildings in Rafah was fewer than 4,700, indicating that the level of destruction doubled within approximately two months of the onset of the Israeli invasion.
UNOSAT’s estimates released in July 2024 indicate that the municipality of Rafah was the most affected, with around 10,100 buildings impacted. Satellite imagery reveals that entire residential blocks in the municipality of Rafah had been entirely wiped out by August 7, 2024.
On May 9, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden stated in an interview with CNN that he would prevent the supply of offensive weapons to Israel should it enter Rafah, saying, “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem.”
Shortly thereafter, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken clarified the President's statement, indicating that it pertained to “a major military operation by Israel.”
Seemingly, the U.S. administration continues to downplay the actions of Israeli forces in Rafah, failing to classify them as a “major operation.” This perspective persists despite estimates from the Decentralized Damage Mapping Group (DDMG) indicating that by July 3, 44% of the city had already been destroyed. Our investigation has shown that destruction levels in Rafah province have escalated even further since that date, highlighting the ongoing severity of the situation and raising questions about the international response to the crisis.
While it is true that the daily civilian casualty rate has decreased compared to earlier levels—despite cumulative numbers continuing to rise—this reduction largely results from the ongoing displacement of residents, including those from Rafah, over the past several months.
Nevertheless, displaced individuals have repeatedly faced direct targeting, resulting in numerous casualties in areas the Israeli military has designated as “safe.”
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