Following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a video has been widely circulated on social media over the past week, claiming that 150,000 Ukrainian refugees are fleeing Ukraine and crossing the Polish border in just one day.
"150,000 Ukrainians have left Ukraine in the last 24 hours," one user wrote.
"This is according to the border service. It says this is a 'record number of people in recent years.' The increase was recorded along the entire Ukrainian border, but especially on the section with Poland."
"At the same time, there has been no significant increase in the number of people returning to Ukraine. Many more people leave the Zelensky concentration camp than enter it," the user added.
Video Claims 150,000 Ukrainian Refugees Fleeing to Poland
The video, a compilation of two clips showing bus queues—one filmed during the day and the other at night—includes Ukrainian text stating "Krakow border more than 50 buses" and "20-21.12.2024," indicating the date. A watermark in the video shows "Telegram channel Real Lviv," which may be the source of the footage.
Misbar's team investigated the video using keywords and reverse image searches on screenshots but found no evidence suggesting it was not recent. The video was primarily shared recently alongside claims that a large number of Ukrainian refugees had fled Ukraine for Poland.
The Polish Border Guard’s Response
The video has been widely circulated amid growing discussions and news about Ukraine lowering the mobilization age to 20 or even 18 years old. Some users suggested that Ukrainians are fleeing the country to escape conscription after the legal age for enlistment was reduced from 27 to 25. Ukrainian media outlets have reported that military recruitment offices are short-staffed, and according to Western officials, Kyiv is being pressured to lower the mobilization age from 25 to 18, especially since media outlets said this change could be a condition for receiving significant aid.
However, the Polish Border Guard clarified to the Polish News Agency (PAP) that "there is no exodus from Ukraine." Border Guard Lieutenant Dariusz Sienicki, spokesperson for the Nadbużański Border Guard Unit, told the agency that while there has been an increase in border traffic over the past week, this includes both entries and exits from Poland.
"The increase in traffic is traditionally, as every year, associated with the Christmas and New Year period," Sienicki explained to PAP.
The Border Guard noted that longer queues began to form at the Polish-Ukrainian border on December 20. However, traffic was evenly split in both directions, with slightly more departures from Poland. The Border Guard also emphasized that there was no day when 150,000 Ukrainian citizens sought to enter Poland. "At the peak on December 22, nearly 89,000 Ukrainian citizens crossed the border, but the majority, almost 49,000, left Poland," PAP reported.
According to the Border Guard, many Ukrainians staying in Poland chose to return home for the holidays, while others from Ukraine traveled to Poland to visit family and friends.
In a CNN article dated December 23, 2024, it was reported that 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, primarily in Europe, with their futures uncertain after years of war. However, PAP’s sources have stated that reports of a Ukrainian exodus are part of a deliberate disinformation campaign, stemming from Kremlin-backed propaganda, as there were no reports of 150,000 Ukrainian citizens fleeing Ukraine to Poland in one day.
Disinformation Targeting Refugees and Migrants
Disinformation and fake news often surge during crises, including difficult migration situations, particularly during wars or conflicts. Misbar has been closely tracking disinformation and fake news related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the outset, debunking and fact-checking numerous claims, including false statements, photos, and videos.
Such disinformation can have serious consequences for migrants and refugees, affecting them not only on an economic level but also in terms of their mental health, personal integrity, and understanding of the migration context.
In a similar situation, Rinas Melli, who fled political persecution in Syria, first sought refuge in Lebanon before moving to Turkey. There, he applied for a scholarship that allowed him to take a visa and apply for asylum in Canada. Melli shared with the Global Migration Media Academy that misinformation has negatively impacted his social integration, as some media portray migrants in harmful ways. He explained that these stereotypes create a distorted image of migrants, undermining their self-acceptance and recognition.
Salahedddine Lemaizi, founder of The Moroccan Network of Migration Journalists, emphasized that migration-related misinformation often begins on social media platforms and spreads through various channels. According to Lemaizi, such falsehoods can escalate into violence and even lead to death, as seen during the May 2021 migration wave to Ceuta.
As malicious actors may exploit sensational and attention-grabbing events to erode public trust in institutions and deepen social divides, the Migration Policy Institute emphasizes the urgent need to bolster societal resilience against disinformation and foster informed, balanced discussions on migration and refugee policies.
The Migration Policy Institute notes that in the European context, migration-related disinformation is closely tied to the ongoing Ukraine humanitarian crisis. Attempts to spread falsehoods about Ukrainian refugees and exploit European fears have not been particularly successful due to the outpouring of solidarity. However, the institute warns that as EU citizens increasingly feel the economic impact of the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, disinformation campaigns may become more effective at stoking discontent. Recent reports highlight the prevalence of migration disinformation framing Ukrainians as wealthier than locals, especially in economically hardest-hit countries, where Ukrainians are often accused of receiving preferential treatment or abusing social benefits.
The institute highlights that the European Union's increased efforts to monitor disinformation trends and enhance societal resilience through media literacy and other initiatives could help foster a more balanced public debate and better understanding. However, it acknowledges that these efforts may take years to produce tangible results.
The institute also stresses that the war is hitting many ordinary residents, making them more vulnerable to disinformation targeting Ukrainians and other migrant groups.
In its report on migration-related disinformation, the institute states that mass displacement from Ukraine is not only Europe’s largest migration challenge since World War II, but it also serves as a crucial test for evaluating the current state of European societies' resilience to disinformation about migration.
It is worth noting that disinformation, fake news, and propaganda not only directly impact migrants and other groups economically, socially, and psychologically but also influence the formulation of migration-related policies in countries of origin, transit, and destination, affecting migrants' lives and futures. Therefore, it is essential to develop strategic plans to address migration-related disinformation and other forms of fake news and propaganda while fostering strong cooperation and collaboration between origin, transit, and destination countries.
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