COVID Killed Fewer People than a Flu Season April 24

On April 24, North Carolina Lt. Gov. Dan Forest told a group of young Republicans that the 2019-2020 seasonal flu had actually killed more people at that point in time than the (at that point) novel coronavirus had. Forest —and many others— have suggested that national stay-at-home orders might create disastrous economic effects that are disproportionate to the danger of COVID-19 itself:

“You know, we’ve still had more deaths to the flu this year than we’ve had COVID-19. There’s been about three times more deaths for HIV/AIDS, remember that was a pandemic at one time that still has no vaccine. This one’s bad. It’s obviously worse than the normal flu year, but it hasn’t hit the extremes of other pandemics yet.”

As of April 25, the day after Forest made his claim, more than 50,000 people had died from COVID-19, according to the US CDC. The estimate has now grown to 79,765 by May 11. Modeling from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has offered a death count up to 134,000 by the end of the crisis.

The flu, on the other hand, claims about 40,000-60,000 deaths per year according to the CDC. Health experts do not keep and publicize an ongoing log of seasonal flu deaths across America, only tallying them in retrospect. However, the CDC predicts that the 2019-2020 flu season will claim the lives of anywhere between 24,000 and 62,000 people— approximately the range of a typical season.

Thus we can say that Forest’s claim is actually completely unverifiable and will remain so until this years’ official seasonal flu statistics are out. However, he was correct that at the time of his speaking, COVID “still” had taken less lives than the average maximum of a seasonal flu.

At the time of writing this article, COVID has taken the lives of US citizens totaling approximately 1/3 greater than the maximum of a seasonal flu, and if the University of Washington’s estimate is correct, COVID will be 2.25 to 4.5 times as bad as the flu, depending on the flu season one compares it to.

In summary, Lt. Gov. Forest’s statement was correct at the time of his speaking, although at this point COVID has 1.33 times the death toll of the maximum average flu season, and by the end of the crisis may have a death toll of 2.25 times the maximum average flu season. Still, Forest’s point about the disproportionate nature of the virus’ economic cost must be considered in any analysis of the validity of our response. Specifically, is 20% unemployment and a 9% drop in GDP worth this cost? As usual, judgment must be left to the reader on these bigger issues, but for now our rating is 'Truth.'