COVID Cases Increased But Deaths Decreased
The Claim
The US COVID situation is “getting worse” with time
News posted on
Emerging story
On July 12th, CNN published an article called “The Two Reasons why COVID is Getting Worse in the US,” which has been shared many times on social media, including by CNN’s own account.
Misbar’s Analysis
Misbar’s investigation shows that the claim is very misleading. CNN accurately reports that the number of COVID cases in the US is increasing, but according to other metrics like the number of deaths, COVID actually peaked in April and has been on a steady and consistent decline ever since. It is entirely possible that the spike in positive testing in recent weeks has been due to a greater number of tests being given. But regardless of the reasoning behind it, it looks like death rate —the proportion of patients dying for every positive test— is dropping fast. Therefore, even though it seems like more cases means things are getting worse, the amount of damage that the virus is doing to each individual is actually decreasing with time.
The story likely circulated due to a significant amount of false information (“Fake News”) from many different sources surrounding the COVID crisis, especially concerning the severity of the crisis, that makes it difficult to determine the extent to which individuals should be concerned for themselves and their families, and modify their behavior accordingly (or not), at any given point in time. For example, the article claims that COVID “will burn the economy to the ground if we don't act,” specifically by shutting down the economy. In contrast, current projections estimate that at current rates of growth, COVID deaths will plateau shortly.
Thus, CNN and all its followers on social media are correct in reporting that the number of COVID cases is increasing in the US. However, this statistic has many possible causes, and the possible cause of a deadly resurgence of the COVID virus is seemingly ruled out by corroborating evidence.
