Biden Leads Trump in Hispanic Polls
The Claim
Hispanic voters seem to be strongly favoring President Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
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Emerging story
In September 2020, social media users retweeted over 24,000 times the claim by Trump that Hispanics seem to strongly favor him. It is assumed that Trump is referring to Hispanic voters favoring him over presidential candidate Joe Biden in the upcoming presidential election.
Misbar’s Analysis
On September 12, 2020, Trump tweeted that he was strongly favored by Hipanics. Misbar found several polls in disagreement. In a national poll released September 2, 2020 by Quinnipiac University, Biden was favored over Trump by 20 percentage points among Hispanic likely voters when asked for whom they would vote if the election for president was held today.
According to a CBS news Battleground Tracker poll, sixty-two percent of Latinos in Arizona are backing Biden, similar to the level of support Hillary Clinton got in 2016.
A poll by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation shows that Hispanic voters in their state prefer Joe Biden over President Trump by nearly 10 percent, but the Texas’ overall electorate still prefers Trump.
Election polls are not meant to predict the outcome of an election. They are simply a good guide as to what voters are thinking in the moment and how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole. For example, according to the BBC, in 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Trump, but she still lost due to the electoral college system. According to the Pew Research Center, the economy, health care, and the COVID-19 outbreak are the top issues for Hispanic voters.
