Misleading: Florida's COVID Spike

Tracy Davenport

Health

26th October 2020

Closed at the start of the pandemic, Florida beaches are back open (Getty Images).

The Claim

There was a COVID-19 spike in Florida, but it is now gone.

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President Trump announced at the last televised presidential debate with former vice president Joe Biden that Floridians had some good news. “There was a spike in Florida, and now it’s gone,” Trump said. President Trump was referring to COVID-19 numbers in the state of Florida.

Misbar’s Analysis

According to The Palm Beach Post, Trump made these remarks a day after Florida recorded what was then the highest daily death toll in the state. However, while we do not know which metrics Trump was referring to, there are multiple ways to measure what is happening with Covid-19 especially in a state as large and as diverse as Florida. Multiple measures must be considered in order to fact check his claim.

For example, in addition to the number of deaths, the impact of COVID-19 can also be measured in the number of new cases. This number may also reflect how many tests are being administered, especially when compared to the beginning of the pandemic when fewer people were being tested. If the number of new cases are being used for a measure of a spike or not, then Florida is not spiking compared to the middle of July according to Florida Atlantic University.

In order to get a truer number of cases in the population, COVID-19 numbers are also measured in rates of positivity. This approach helps to neutralize the impact of the number of tests being given and just shows the percentage of people who are showing up positive no matter how many tests are administered. According to Johns Hopkins University Medicine, approximate 10 percent of people being tested in Florida are coming back COVID-19 positive, down from a high of almost 20 percent in July.

In addition to deaths, number of new cases, and rates of positivity, the number of hospitalizations, reflecting serious illness from the virus, must also be considered. According to Tallahassee Reports.com approximately 2,200 people are currently hospitalized compared to approximately 9,200 in July, 2020.

The New York Times puts several COVID-19 measures together in one graph:

There are multiple ways of measuring a “spike” when it comes to Covid-19. When Trump claimed the spike was gone, he could have been referring to the COVID-19 numbers the state of Florida was experiencing earlier this year in July compared to now. In terms of the spike being gone, the state is still experiencing a COVID-19 positivity rate approximately twice that recommended by the World Health Organization. Therefore the claim is misleading.