Selective: Trump Rallies and COVID-19 Cases
The Claim
Trump rallies have led to 30,000 COVID-19 cases and 700 deaths.
News posted on
Emerging story
On October 30, 2020, four Stanford researchers finalized and published the article “The Effects of Large Group Meetings on the Spread of COVID-19: The Case of Trump Rallies.” The article states in reference to several Trump campaign rallies: “these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19.”
With this shocking news, many began discussing the article and the dangers these rallies may have caused.
Misbar’s Analysis
Since the beginning of the pandemic, more than 9.25 Million Americans have contracted COVID-19. Of this amount, 231,000 have died.
In the Stanford report, the researchers use a predictive approach to highlight the outcomes of Trump rallies dated between June 20th and September 22nd. In their research, they identify clear trends to indicate that cities with rallies had higher links to increased spread of the virus compared with cities that didn’t have rallies. Statical formulas and evidence are used to calculate figures for the case and result in a total of 30,000 estimated COVID cases and roughly 700 deaths.
Other studies conducted by CNN and USA Today also show a strong correlation between Trump rallies and COVID-19 case surges.
However, the Stanford study was conducted by economists using predictive models instead of comparable models, meaning that they don’t include other important factors for the disease. While the predictive model may be accurate, it is too soon to tell.
There is a surge in COVID-19 cases following Trump rallies, but correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. Since we are currently unable to verify the 30,000 number, we rate this claim as selective.
