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Voter Fraud Isn't the Only Way Trump Can Lose

Tracy Davenport Tracy Davenport
Politics
2nd November 2020
Voter Fraud Isn't the Only Way Trump Can Lose
Trump's claims are unsubstantiated by evidence (Getty Images).

The Claim

Massive voter fraud is the only way President Donald Trump can lose the November 3, 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Emerging story

In recent voter rallies, President Trump has claimed that the only way he can lose the election is if massive fraud occurs. Social media users are discussing his claim. 

Misbar’s Analysis

According to Misbar’s investigation, it will not take massive fraud for President Donald Trump to lose the election. Some polls show Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden with a clear advantage over Trump to become the next U.S. president. 

In a poll by The New York Times and Siena College, Biden, the former vice president, is ahead of Trump in the Northern battlegrounds of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as in the Sun Belt states of Florida and Arizona,. His strength is most pronounced in Wisconsin, where he has an outright majority of the vote and leads Trump by 11 points, 52% to 41%.

According to CNN polls, Biden holds an advantage in the upper Midwest states of Wisconsin and Michigan but the race between Biden and Trump is tighter in the battlegrounds of Arizona and North Carolina. Trump won all four of these states in 2016, and a loss on Tuesday in any of them would make his narrow path to 270 electoral votes more difficult.

Even Fox News, a typical Trump supporter, suggests Biden is leading Trump. 

However, there are other polls that show that this election may be too close to call. 

It may help to note that according to the Pew Research Center, around a third of registered voters in the U.S. (34%) identify as independents, while 33% identify as Democrats and 29% identify as Republicans. Broken down into just Democrats and Republicans, when taking independents’ partisan leanings into account, 49% of all registered voters either identify as Democrats or lean to the party, while 44% identify as Republicans or lean to the GOP. This means that if Democrats and Republicans all voted with their party, Trump would lose to Joe Biden. 

Massive fraud is not the only way that Trump could lose the election. 

Misbar’s Classification

Fake

Misbar’s Sources

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