Nipah Has Been Known Since 1999
The Claim
Nipah virus could be the next pandemic.
News posted on
Emerging story
News on social media that the next big pandemic is the Nipah virus is doing rounds. Despite only affecting a few Asian countries and less than 1000 people since 1999.
Several news outlets, including here and here, headlined that the Nipah Virus is a potential pandemic with a fatality rate of 75%. The news comes after the Netherlands based Access to Medicine Foundation, released their Access to Medicine Index Report for 2021, headed by Jayasree K Iyer.
Misbar’s Analysis
According to the WHO, the Nipah virus is a zoonotic virus that can be transmitted from animals to people, but also through contaminated food and from person to person. The virus can present asymptomatically or fever, headaches, cough, confusion, shortness of breath, acute respiratory infection, and fatal encephalitis. The virus has been known since 1999 with its first recorded outbreak in Malaysia and also affecting Singapore, believed to have been spread from infected pigs. Since then, there have been recurrent human outbreaks, in particular in India and Bangladesh, the latter of which experiences nearly annual outbreaks where it is believed to spread from infected fruit bats. It has no known treatment and only supportive care is provided to treat symptoms. Since 1999 the virus has infected about 700 people with a varying mortality rate of 40% to 75% depending on local capabilities for clinical management and epidemiological surveillance.
The Guardian quoted Iyer as saying the “Nipah virus is another emerging infectious disease that causes great concern,” she said. “Nipah could blow any moment. The next pandemic could be a drug-resistant infection.” However, the actual report does not mention this but merely shows that there are currently no medicines or vaccines in the pipeline for the virus. Despite the findings of the report, certain organizations included the Nipah virus in their priority diseases for research purposes, such as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Additionally, the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is currently evaluating and developing immunotherapeutic treatments to fight the virus. More recently, the American pharmaceutical company Moderna has also released a press statement that they will begin researching vaccines using their mRNA technology for the Nipah virus amongst other viruses. There was also a Nipah Virus International Conference that took place in December 2019 to discuss the virus and collaborate.
Although the WHO considers the Nipah virus a public health concern, its known outbreaks have been restricted to only a few Asian countries. Whereas a pandemic is a spread of infectious diseases spread across a large region, multiple continents, or worldwide, usually with a high number of infections in a specific time. Since its origin, almost 23 years ago, the virus has infected approximately 700 people, a relatively low number. Dirar Balawi, an infectious diseases consultant said there was no need to panic over Nipah as it does not live up to the ferocity of the Coronavirus. Nonetheless, it is one of 10 infectious diseases out of 16 identified by the WHO as “the greatest public health risk where there are zero projects in pharmaceutical firms’ pipelines.” It, therefore, appears that the Access to Medicine Report was intended to highlight the need for research and development in viruses that are under-researched so as to prevent a COVID-19 situation of reacting after the outbreak. Vaccine development should be a pre-emptive and proactive measure rather than reactionary. Thus, in the context of the report and related information, it appears that the headlines are sensational and possibly misleading. The headline spreads fear and panic without sufficient evidence, at a sensitive time, considering the pandemic.