Misleading: Natural Disasters and Crime Correlation
The Claim
Crime increases when there is a natural disaster.
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Emerging story
On Sunday, March 28, 2021, South Republican Senator Lindsey Graham was on at least one morning talk show discussing gun control. In his interview, he said he will not support limiting the ownership of AR-15 style rifles because he owns one. He explained he owns this type of firearm in case there is a natural disaster in his area which could result in gangs overtaking the police and then his AR-15 would help him protect his home. The interview excerpt was then retweeted more than 10K times.
Misbar’s Analysis
Misbar investigated whether natural disasters actually cause an increase in crime in the affected areas and according to the American Association of the Advancement of Science (AAAS) they mostly do not. In research published in Natural Hazards, scientists discovered that in affected communities, natural disasters affect crime negatively, dispelling popular conceptions regarding looting. In order to come to the conclusion, the research team analyzed data of the disasters that took place in the U.S. between 2004 and 2015, a period which saw over 10,000 individual disasters of differing scope and killed over 8,300 people, causing damage in excess of 100 billion dollars.
Most other research on the topic of natural disasters and crime has been conducted outside of the U.S. but with similar conclusions. In January 2011, Brisbane, the state capital city of Queensland, Australia, experienced an extreme flood event that impacted over 175,000 people, and resulted in $7.5 billion dollars worth of damage. Researchers investigated whether changes to the neighborhood structure influenced crime trends across 390 communities in Brisbane, following the flood event. The results of the study indicated that in most neighborhoods (70%), the property crime trend did not deviate from what was originally forecasted pre-flood.
It has been a popular idea among some that after a natural disaster crime increases. However, natural disasters mostly move crime rates down, not up, post-disaster as people of the communities pull together to try to help one another and the affected areas become the focus of philanthropic efforts.
