Portland Murder Rate Up, But Not 1600

Misbar discovered that while the murder rate in Portland is on the rise from the previous year, it does not appear to be up 1600%. According to the City of Oregon crime statistics, there were 3 homicides in the first quarter of 2020. 

While the City’s official homicide estimates from February 2020 and later have not yet completed the quality control process, according to the Portland Police Bureau, the city recorded its 23rd homicide at the end of the first quarter of 2021. That is an increase of 766%, from the year before, not 1600%. 

The social media post also implies that the increase in homicides is due to defunding law enforcement. However, more work may be needed to verify this idea. Crime rates in the City of Portland have been on the rise since 2014. In 2018 there were 26 homicides, in 2019 there were 35 homicides, and in 2020, 56 people were murdered in the city. Other cities across the U.S. are also seeing a rise in homicides according to the Wall Street Journal. This may also be due to pandemic restrictions loosening.

Oregon still has a relatively small rate of murders compared to other states in the U.S. For example, in 2019, there were 2.8 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in Oregon compared to 23.5 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in the District of Columbia. 

With the available data, it appears that for the first quarter of 2021, the homicide rate in Portland is up close to 766% – not 1600%, as was shared on social media. It is probably too soon to explain a cause of the rise for 2021 homicides, since murders have been rising steadily in Portland for at least the last five years.