CDC Outdoor Transmission Statistics Err on the Side of Caution
The Claim
The CDC has been needlessly exaggerating the outdoor transmission rate of coronavirus with inaccurate claims.
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Emerging story
On May 11th, The New York Times released a morning newsletter with the headline, “A Misleading C.D.C. Number.” The report explained how the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s findings of a 10% transmission rate for outdoor Covid transmission was misleading, as the true number is likely to be significantly lower.
A range of people on social media interpreted this article and a range of similar articles as evidence that the CDC had been lying and making up false claims. These posts managed to get hundreds of interactions.
Misbar’s Analysis
Misbar’s investigation has concluded that while the Times is correct that the outdoor transmission rate for coronavirus is likely to be significantly lower than 10%, it is incorrect to state that the CDC has been spreading false claims.
As the New York Times states, the CDC used the “less than 10%” benchmark for outdoor transmissions, as it was so high that it could not be disputed. However, it did not pick this statistic arbitrarily. As the CDC director, Doctor Rochelle Walensky stated at a White House press briefing on April 27th, 2021, many studies have placed the outdoor transmission rate at less than 10%.
Doctor Walensky and the CDC are basing this statistic on high quality studies that have been repeated in respected medical journals. For instance, the February 2021 issue of The Journal of Infectious Diseases stated that five studies had identified an outdoor transmission rate of less than 10%.
Additionally, it is also worth considering that the CDC has to anticipate the effect of the more contagious coronavirus strains when it releases its guidance. For instance, the World Health Organization’s chief scientist has stated that India’s current coronavirus surge is partially due to a more contagious variant.
Naturally, the CDC has to work with reliable data. The most reliable studies to date state that coronavirus outdoor infections account for less than 10% of overall infections, so it has used that statistic. The agency is being cautious to avoid another surge in coronavirus cases, and is basing its statements upon reliable data.
This means that it is true to state, as the New York Times does, that the less than 10% coronavirus outdoor transmission rate is likely to be an over exaggeration. However, the CDC is sourcing this statistic from the most reliable studies that have been made public, and it is anticipating the impact of more contagious variants. Therefore, claims that the CDC is lying or being deceptive are false.
