Saudi Arabia Peace Plans for Yemen is an Exit Strategy
The Claim
Saudi Arabia initiates peace talks with Yemen to establish long-lasting peace.
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Emerging story
Social media users are circulating news that Saudi Arabia is looking to initiate and engaging in peace talks with the Houthis to engage end the war in Yemen and attain long-lasting peace and stability in the region. These talks are being mediated by Oman and follow a near seven-year war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Misbar’s Analysis
MENA: Upon investigation of the claim, the Misbar team found it to be misleading. Although there are, indeed, talks currently underway between Yemen and Saudi Arabia mediated by Oman, they have been vague and did not resolve disputes such as those over Sanaa airport and Houthi-controlled ports. The main intention of Saudi Arabia is not long-term peace but rather an exit strategy following a costly seven-year war that has brought little success. According to Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver, “it is not driven by the desire to create lasting peace but rather by the attempt to define an exit strategy from a conflict that has turned into a quagmire for the kingdom.” Saudi Arabia is also being pressured by coalition members and the international community and is desperate to exit Yemen.
Hashemi further adds that Saudi Arabia failed in defeating the Houthis and reinstating the internationally recognized Yemeni government and may find itself in a position in which it might be forced to capitulate. This is augmented by the Houthis’ advancement to victory, given their control in the country and repeated ability to attack Saudi Arabian territory using drones. The Houthis currently believe that the power has shifted in their favor and can make unconditional requests for Saudi Arabia to leave. However, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to be willing to abandon Yemen without guarantees of its security.
Nardwuar Dasari, a Yemeni American political analyst and nonresident scholar with the Middle East Institute in Washington, also reiterated that “the Saudi-Houthi negotiations have nothing to do with peace. They're not going to lead to peace. The thing is, what the Houthis and the Saudis are negotiating right now, and what the Houthis are demanding, is for the Saudis to leave Yemen unconditionally.”
Given the findings, the claim is misleading. Saudi Arabia does not necessarily want a peace deal but an exit strategy that guarantees their safety from the region and saves face, given that they have failed to achieve their objectives. The Yemen war has been one of the worst humanitarian crises in history that left more than 230,000 people dead.
