Media Outlets Exaggerated Japanese Defense Minister's Statements About Attack On Hawaii

Misbar’s investigation concluded that the headlines and social media posts are exaggerating the Japanese official’s statements and are neglecting to appropriately highlight the setting in which he made them. 

The official who made the statements is Yasuhide Nakayama, the Japanese state minister for defense. He did not make those statements to a member of the U.S. government or military, as it may be easy to assume based on the content of the media headlines. Instead, he made these comments during an event that discussed the transformation of Japan’s security strategy to the Hudson Institute, a non-profit think tank that is financed through conservative groups.

Additionally, Nakayama did not directly state that China and Russia were planning an attack upon Hawaii in his speech. The transcript reveals that Nakayama used Japan’s invasion of Pearl Harbor in World War Two as a hypothetical example of what could happen if China and Russia were to attack the U.S. if it does not continue to expand its defense systems. 

For instance, the first time Nakayama mentions any part of Hawaii in his speech is in the following statement: 

“The Chinese naval activities is, actually, they are getting more power. And also they are investing lots of budget, focusing on specially to the maritime businesses and that means the submarines. And of course it’s a nuclear submarines. And they used to have JL-2 missiles, which is range about 8,000 kilometers. And so if the Chinese submarine launched missile from JL-2 for this direction, which means your house direction, maybe Honolulu, it’s in the range and sometime Alaska, sometime West Coast, it can reach to your place. It’s a possibility.” 

Clearly, this statement is describing a hypothetical scenario instead of referring to any existing plans that the Chinese military might attack Hawaii. 

These media reports also fail to mention that Nakayama believes that current U.S. foreign policy is improving in its responses to China and Russia. He stated the following: “Honestly speaking, I think the foreign policy of the United States government is getting more stronger compared to Donald Trump foreign policy.” 

Throughout the entire discussion, Nakayama does not go as far as to say that Russia and/or China are planning to attack Hawaii. The closest he gets to stating this is saying that Russian warships are present to the west of Honolulu. But this does not mean that he is saying that Russia currently is planning to attack Hawaii.

Additionally, there are many factors that make a surprise attack on Hawaii from China and/or Russia unlikely. For instance, as the Council on Foreign Relations highlights, the U.S. and China have strongly intertwined economies. In fact, in 2020, President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed an agreement for China to buy $200 million of American products over the next two years. The U.S. and Russian economies are not as strongly linked, but there are other reasons why Russia is unlikely to directly attack the U.S.. For instance, Russia’s military expenditures are significantly lower than the U.S.’s. Armedforces.eu states that the U.S.’s military budget is $738 billion, compared to Russia’s $61.7 billion. 

Additionally, Hawaii does also have a robust missile defense system. In 2018, military leaders stated that they were confident that Hawaii’s ground interceptors could protect the state from missile attacks. In addition to the missile defense system, there are also 11 military bases in Hawaii. Lastly, the U.S. Navy has 25 surface ships and submarines and up to 25 aircraft homeported in Hawaii. All of these military installations act as deterrents to nations such as Russian and China. 

The official was describing a hypothetical situation.