Egypt and Sudan Have No Power To Restrict Ethiopia’s Water Access
The Claim
Sudan and Egypt attempt to restrict Ethiopia’s access to water.
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Emerging story
A claim is circulating on social media, particularly Twitter, which says that “Sudan's and Egypt's attempts to restrict Ethiopia's access to water in a way that deviates from the principles of cross-border use of the river will not produce the desired results.” This comes amidst the ongoing disagreement between the nations surrounding the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Misbar’s Analysis
MENA: Ethiopia sources approximately 85% of the Nile’s water upstream via the Blue Nile, one of the Nile’s two tributaries that flow north to Sudan and Egypt and finally to the Mediterranean Sea. Egypt and Sudan do not have the power to restrict Ethiopia’s access to the Nile waters because they lie downstream from the river source.
The development of the GERD, which is currently undergoing its second filling, gives Ethiopia further power for controlling the flow of water downstream. It, therefore, does not make sense that the countries downstream would be able to prevent or limit water access to Ethiopia. This is illustrated in the map below, which shows the flow of water from Ethiopia via the Blue Nile and Lake Victoria via the While Nile tributary northwards to Sudan and Egypt.
As for restricting Ethiopia’s access to water using legal and political power, Sudan and Egypt have no choice but to accept the GERD. However, they want the filling process to be done over a more extended period not to affect the water supply downstream and not have a binding agreement for future uses.
It is important to note that the water use amounts between the three countries have long been unfair, with Egypt receiving the lion’s share of Nile waters, more than 55 billion of the around 88 billion cubic meters. The source of conflict as it stands is uncertainty over whether Ethiopia will use its new power over the water supply reasonably.
Despite the conflict, hydrologists say the most pressing threat facing the Nile stems from population growth and climate change. Given the findings, the Misbar team concludes the claim as false since neither Egypt nor Sudan have the power to restrict Ethiopia’s water access.
