Ted Cruz's Claim About Immigrants and COVID Increase is Incorrect

It is reasonable to assume that multiple factors played a role in the increase in cases. These include a more contagious COVID-19 variant, lack of preventative health measures such as masks, COVID-19 news fatigue, lower vaccination rates, and seasonality. While it can be hard to predict the relative contribution of each variable, some trends and comparisons can help explain factors that may or may not be making the most difference in the increases. 

When considering whether illegal aliens played a big role in the increase, it may be helpful to look at the areas with the most border encounters. In Texas, these have been greatest in the Rio Grande Valley, Laredo, Del Rio, and El Paso. Of these areas, the Rio Grande Valley has the highest Southwest land border encounters. The Rio Grande Valley includes Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, and Willacy counties. 

The COVID-19 rates for these counties are shown below:

While the total number of COVID-19 cases for the Rio Valley region of Texas on July 15, 2021 were only a fraction of what they were at their peak, Ted Cruz was correct in that they did increase (120%) from the month before. 

However, a few comparisons can better explain what drives these numbers.

The increase in COVID-19 cases statewide over the same time period was much greater than the border areas (191%) and nationwide over the same time period the increase in COVID-19 cases was higher than Texas (199%). In other words, the increase in COVID-19 cases in the last month in Texas was below the national average and the border areas were lower than the entire state of Texas, so it would be difficult to argue that the illegal immigrants were a major contributor to the increase. 

Some have suggested that one can compare a nearby state that has more mask-wearing, such as California, to Texas to see if not wearing masks contributes greatly to the recent increase in Texas COVID-19 cases. Over the last month (June 15-July 15), California saw a 216% rise in COVID-19 cases compared to a 191% increase in Texas, thereby reducing the chance that the increase could be blamed solely on not wearing masks. 

Rates of vaccines are another variable to be considered in the rise of cases in Texas. Once again, nationwide, COVID-19 cases increased almost 200% last month, while the state of Texas increased only 191% (therefore those blaming the Texas COVID-19 increase for a relatively low vaccine rate may also be off base). 

Another factor to consider to help explain the rising COVID-19 rates in South Texas is the season. Last summer, the southern regions of the U.S. including Texas saw a big increase in the cases of the virus as more people returned indoors to avoid the heat. COVID-19 rates in Texas increased 442% from June 15 to July 15, 2020, a much greater percentage increase than they are experiencing this year. (By comparing percentages, versus case numbers, one can more easily see certain trends in the COVID-19 numbers). In fact, last summer is when Texas experienced its first COVID-19 peak. 

To conclude, COVID-19 cases are rising nationwide, but are only a fraction of where they were in the peak of the pandemic. In Texas, the number of cases are also on the rise, but once again, only a fraction of where they were a year ago. Most importantly, one would expect to see a seasonal increase in the southern U.S. based on last year’s data. Therefore, COVID-19 data does not support the claim that an increase in illegal immigrants is the reason for rising cases in Texas.