Asteroid Bennu Unlikely to Hit Earth

Misbar discovered the social media chatter about an asteroid hitting the earth is most likely the result of an article published in the scientific journal Icarus. Previously, ground-based observations of a very old asteroid named Bennu had determined a “non-zero” chance of it hitting the earth someday, which inspired NASA to collect more data about the asteroid. As a result of more recent information gathered from the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, NASA was able to do more precise modeling of the path of Bennu. According to NASA, the OSIRIS-REx has traveled to the asteroid and is bringing back a small sample to earth to study. 

From the information NASA has gathered so far, the asteroid poses no immediate threat to our planet. However, according to National Geographic: “Nearly all of the riskiest encounters with Bennu will occur in the late 2100s and early 2200s, with the single likeliest impact coming on the afternoon of September 24, 2182. On that Tuesday, Bennu has about a 1-in-2,700 chance of hitting Earth.” 

Prior to that date, NASA estimates that on September 25, 2135, Bennu will make a close fly-by to earth. Once it gets close to earth, our gravity will play with its future path, making it difficult to know its future trajectory. The danger is that if our gravity tweaks the path of Bennu just right, that could cause it to hit earth in a future orbit years ahead of that close encounter. However, NASA describes the probability of that happening as “low.”

While the asteroid Bennu is considered a hazardous asteroid by the scientific community, the chances of an impact with earth are considered low at this time.